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What do the punters predict?

Paddy Powers have now priced odds on every candidate in each constituency in the country. It's a short step to converting those odds to probabilities and ranking them to determine the winners of each seat in each constituency, the aggregation of which obviously equals the makeup of the 31st Dail.

The below is not a poll, nor does it pretend to be. Its margin of error can be qualified (below), but not quantified. It is an extrapolation of one company’s prediction of each candidates chances of election, based on an unclear division of that company’s own take on individual constituencies and the betting patterns of its customers. The extrapolation that the candidates with the shortest odds will have the highest probability of being elected depends on the following:

- Paddy Power’s overriding interest is in pricing each candidate as fairly as possible to reduce its downside risk, rather than altering the odds to reflect any corporate bias. They may have taken various polls into consideration in determining pricing, in which case this result may be, at worst, seen as a poll of polls. However, the predominant determining factor in making up the odds is therefore presumed to be betting patterns.

- Those likely to bet on politics are more likely to be those with heavy involvement or at least a deep interest in politics, by definition omitting a large % of the electorate. The odds would therefore be seen as representative of what existing FF / FG/ Labour supporters, etc make of their own chances in a constituency by constituency basis, rather than the views of the electorate as a whole.

- Parties members are more likely to view their own outcome favourably. If the overall odds are the sum of the individual bets, then the odds of parties with a larger traditional base (ie more people betting for their party) are more likely to overstated, and vice vearsa. This might suggest that FF/FG seats are too short and Labour, Greens and smaller party odds too long.

- The same argument could be made of a historical bias – FF punters can see a collapse, but not a wipeout because of the way it’s always been, Labour punters conversely can predict a growth, but not an eruption. The views of the electorate on polling day may make a mockery of either predisposition.

- That said, the fact that money is put down induces a certain level of honesty - and the aggregation of the political wisdom of the politicos in individual constituencies, with their grassroots familiarity with local loyalties is probably as accurate a predictor of the outcome of each constituency than a centrally conducted random sample poll.

- Despite the above health warnings, it is illuminating in a way that many polls are not. It predicts who will be elected, which is what ultimately matters, rather than the first pref tally, and extrapolating swings from that. It shows which seats are safe and where the battles will most likely happen, and the level of margin between candidates– much of this is already known, but this collates it and quantifies it.

Enough health warnings - down to results as of 7th Feb:

Party	Predicted no. of seats	No. of runners up	Topping poll
FG	68	6	23
FF	33	17	3
Lab	36	15	13
SF	13	3	2
Green	0	0	0
ULA	3	1	0
Others	13	1	2

	Connaught	Dublin	Leinster	Munster	Ulster
FG	11	14	17	22	4
FF	5	5	11	9	3
Lab	1	16	11	8	0
SF	0	6	2	1	4
Green	0	0	0	0	0
ULA	0	3	0	0	0
Others	3	3	1	6	0

Constituency by constituency

Percentages represent the difference in probability of election between the last seat and the first runner up – deeper the colour, more intense the likely struggle

Constituency	Province	Candidates	Seats	1	2	3	4	5	6	Runner up 1	Runner up 2
Roscommon South Leitrim	Connaught	9	3	FG	FG	FF	2%			Others	SF
Sligo North Leitrim	Connaught	11	3	FG	FG	FF	3%			SF	Lab
Galway East	Connaught	12	4	FG	FF	FG	Others	30%		Lab	FG
Galway West	Connaught	16	5	FF	FG	Others	Lab	Others	3%	FG
Mayo	Connaught	13	5	FG	FG	FF	FG	FG	16%	Lab
Dublin North Central	Dublin	8	3	FG	Others	Lab	27%			FF	FG
Dublin North East	Dublin	10	3	FG	Lab	SF	23%			Lab	FF
Dublin North West	Dublin	12	3	Lab	SF	Lab	4%			FF	FG
Dublin Central	Dublin	13	4	Lab	Others	FG	SF	19%		FF	Lab
Dublin Mid-West	Dublin	10	4	Lab	FG	FG	SF	3%		FF	Lab
Dublin North	Dublin	10	4	FG	Lab	ULA	FF	0%		FF	Green
Dublin South East	Dublin	12	4	Lab	FG	Lab	FG	12%		FF	Others
Dublin South West	Dublin	7	4	FG	Lab	Lab	SF	11%		FF	FF
Dublin West	Dublin	9	4	Lab	FG	ULA	FF	39%		Lab	FG
Dun Laoghaire	Dublin	10	4	Lab	FG	ULA	FF	8%		Lab	FF
Dublin South	Dublin	11	5	Lab	FG	FG	Others	FF	12%	Lab
Dublin South Central	Dublin	11	5	FG	Lab	SF	Lab	FF	10%	ULA
Kildare South	Leinster	7	3	FG	Lab	FF	5%			FF	Others
Meath East	Leinster	6	3	FG	Lab	FF	47%			FG	FF
Meath West	Leinster	9	3	FG	FF	Lab	8%			SF	FG
Kildare North	Leinster	11	4	Lab	FG	Others	FF	8%		Lab	FG
Longford Westmeath	Leinster	10	4	Lab	FG	FG	FF	17%		FF	Lab
Carlow Kilkenny	Leinster	14	5	FG	FF	Lab	FG	Lab	7%	FF
Laois Offaly	Leinster	13	5	FG	FF	SF	FF	FG	12%	FG
Louth	Leinster	11	5	FG	SF	Lab	FF	FG	14%	FF
Wexford	Leinster	10	5	Lab	FG	FG	FF	FF	9%	Lab
Wicklow	Leinster	16	5	FG	Lab	Lab	FG	FG	0%	FF
Cork North West	Munster	9	3	FG	FF	FG	4%			FG	Lab
Cork South West	Munster	11	3	Lab	FG	FG	11%			FG	FF
Kerry North	Munster	5	3	FG	SF	Lab	54%			FF	FG
Kerry South	Munster	7	3	Others	FG	Others	11%			Lab	FF
Limerick	Munster	6	3	FG	FF	FG	27%			Lab	Others
Tipperary North	Munster	7	3	Others	Lab	FG	22%			FF	SF
Tipperary South	Munster	8	3	FG	Others	Others	25%			FF	Lab
Clare	Munster	12	4	FG	FG	FF	Others	16%		Lab	FG
Cork East	Munster	10	4	Lab	FG	FG	FF	11%		SF	FF
Cork North Central	Munster	13	4	Lab	FF	FG	FG	5%		Lab	SF
Limerick City	Munster	9	4	FF	FG	Lab	FG	21%		Lab	SF
Waterford	Munster	10	4	FG	FG	FF	Lab	29%		Lab	Others
Cork South Central	Munster	12	5	FF	FG	Lab	FG	FF	8%	FG
Donegal North East	Ulster	7	3	FG	SF	FF	55%			Lab	FG
Donegal South West	Ulster	7	3	SF	FG	FF	57%			FF	Others
Cavan Monaghan	Ulster	13	5	SF	FG	FF	SF	FG	27%	FF