Monday, 24 January 2011

GE11: What does Paddy Power reckon?

Taking the 20 constituencies that Paddy Powers have currently quoted odds for (albeit strongly biased towards Dublin constituencies), comprising 78 of the total 165 seats to be elected, and calculating the mathematical most probable candidates according to the listed odds,

Lab gets 28 seats, FG 26, FF15, others 9.

A lot of clear methodology probs doing things this way, and with data source biases, but given an election is about actual names on seats in constituencies rather than general views of different parties, may be more accurate than a lot of polls.

BReakdown and methodolgy attached

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AozBcmuLodtxdGlGdE13UDhod1o2SnJqWllFVlh1eXc&hl=en_GB&authkey=COemgKEO


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