Thursday, 24 February 2011

Last Day - PP predictions of candidate nos, battles and options

Last post: Today's final constituency odds from Paddy Powers, whipped into Excel and spitting out following predictions. Comments on merit of an extrapolation of odds in earlier posts - in summary the bookies don't lose, so this is likely to be broadly accurate.

Full Detailed breakdown by constituency here:https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B4zBcmuLodtxMWIwMzhkYzktNTdhMy00ZDczLWIzNDgtOGNlYmQ0OTg0OTNj&hl=en_GB

For the record, the list of 13 projected independents from which FG could potentially chose are:

Tom Fleming Michael Lowry Finian McGrath Seamus Healy Catherine Connolly Catherine Murphy Luke 'The Ming' Flanagan James Breen Maureen O'Sullivan Shane Ross Sean Canney Mick Wallace Noel Grealish

Candidates

Seats

Poll toppers

Last Seat

Runner Up

FG

103

77

24

17

12

FF

75

25

3

13

15

Lab

68

33

12

3

5

Ind

193

13

2

4

8

SF

41

14

2

2

2

SP

7

1

0

0

0

Green

25

1

0

1

0

PBP

9

1

0

1

0

Constituency

Province

Candidates

Seats

1

2

3

4

Last Seat

Runner Up

% between last seat and runner up

% between Runner up and 2nd Runner up

Roscommon South Leitrim

Connaught

10

3

FG

FG

Ind

FF

29%

5%

Sligo North Leitrim

Connaught

13

3

FG

FG

FF

FF

19%

3%

Dublin North Central

Dublin

9

3

FG

Ind

FG

Lab

31%

23%

Dublin North East

Dublin

11

3

FG

Lab

SF

Lab

0%

36%

Dublin North West

Dublin

12

3

Lab

SF

FG

FG

24%

8%

Kildare South

Leinster

8

3

FG

Lab

FF

FF

0%

9%

Meath East

Leinster

9

3

FG

Lab

FF

FG

2%

48%

Meath West

Leinster

13

3

FG

FF

FG

SF

6%

8%

Cork North West

Munster

9

3

FG

FF

FG

FG

4%

38%

Cork South West

Munster

13

3

FG

Lab

FG

FG

2%

8%

Kerry North

Munster

11

3

FG

Lab

SF

FG

43%

23%

Kerry South

Munster

10

3

Ind

FG

FG

Ind

2%

5%

Limerick

Munster

10

3

FG

FF

FG

Ind

16%

11%

Tipperary North

Munster

8

3

Ind

Lab

FG

FF

56%

24%

Tipperary South

Munster

8

3

FG

WUAG

Lab

Ind

3%

26%

Donegal North East

Ulster

11

3

FG

SF

FF

Lab

12%

28%

Donegal South West

Ulster

9

3

SF

FG

FF

Ind

27%

26%

Galway East

Connaught

13

4

FG

FF

FG

Ind

FG

22%

3%

Dublin Central

Dublin

16

4

Lab

FG

SF

Ind

FF

63%

7%

Dublin Mid-West

Dublin

14

4

Lab

FG

FG

SF

FF

31%

23%

Dublin North

Dublin

9

4

FG

Lab

Soc

FF

FF

0%

2%

Dublin South East

Dublin

16

4

Lab

FG

FG

Lab

Ind

24%

11%

Dublin South West

Dublin

10

4

FG

Lab

SF

FG

FF

12%

2%

Dublin West

Dublin

10

4

Lab

FG

SP

FF

FG

12%

5%

Dun Laoghaire

Dublin

14

4

Lab

FG

FG

Lab

FF

6%

14%

Kildare North

Leinster

12

4

Lab

FG

Ind

FG

FF

12%

0%

Longford Westmeath

Leinster

15

4

Lab

FG

FG

FF

FG

25%

2%

Clare

Munster

16

4

FG

FG

FF

Ind

FF

29%

0%

Cork East

Munster

13

4

Lab

FG

FG

FF

FF

0%

6%

Cork North Central

Munster

15

4

Lab

Lab

SF

FG

FG

12%

7%

Limerick City

Munster

13

4

FG

FF

Lab

FG

SF

40%

10%

Waterford

Munster

15

4

FG

FG

Lab

FF

Ind

20%

0%

Galway West

Connaught

17

5

FF

FG

Ind

FG

Ind

Lab

1%

2%

Mayo

Connaught

15

5

FG

FG

FF

FG

FG

Ind

31%

Dublin South

Dublin

16

5

Lab

FG

FG

Ind

Green

FF

2%

Dublin South Central

Dublin

18

5

FG

SF

Lab

Lab

PBP

Ind

5%

Carlow Kilkenny

Leinster

19

5

FG

FF

FG

Lab

FG

Lab

3%

Laois Offaly

Leinster

21

5

FF

FG

SF

FF

FG

FG

12%

Louth

Leinster

16

5

FG

SF

Lab

FG

FF

FF

33%

Wexford

Leinster

14

5

Lab

FG

FG

Ind

FF

FG

2%

Wicklow

Leinster

24

5

FG

FG

Lab

Lab

FG

FF

15%

Cork South Central

Munster

17

5

FF

FG

Lab

FG

FG

FF

21%

Cavan Monaghan

Ulster

14

5

SF

FG

FG

SF

FF

FG

14%


Full Detailed breakdown by constituency here:https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B4zBcmuLodtxMWIwMzhkYzktNTdhMy00ZDczLWIzNDgtOGNlYmQ0OTg0OTNj&hl=en_GB