21st Feb update of Paddy Power's predictions

Paddy Power's most up to date poll has some interesting revelations on how the election will shake out at count time.

It confirms FG's recent surge in the polls, predicting 75 seats, the majority of which are comfortable - but still shy of an overall majority. They have just missed out on the final seat in 10 further constituencies, but that's not an unreasonable percentage for such a large party, so conversion of those to seats is unlikely. A marginally better showing on the day, plus a group of independents might be a potential - though this may be difficult considering the wide political spectrum of independants actually predicted to be elected. It looks as if FG will have little choice but to jump into bed with Labour.

Labour, despite polls in the past couple of days, have held the same number of predicted seats as PP's predicted 3 weeks ago, and while it's well below the aspired 40 seat mark, those 34 predicted seats are generally very safe - Labour is rarely seen in the final seat place, and widely seen having just missed out on the final seat - a vindication of the party's candidate selection policy in terms of number of candidates, if not always the specific persons involved. A lot of further down the line seats are left leaning, so Labour may benefit from 3rd/4th preferences, which are less likely to pass to transfer toxic FF/SF, and may result in a signficant seat bonus.

FF look safe as the third party, a good stretch from SF, even given a further collapse in the vote - SF simply don't have sufficient strong candidates in sufficient constituencies to challenge them. The prediction underlines the catastrophy about to be dealt to the former biggest party, with almost 50% of their predicted seats coming from the last seat in different constituencies.

	Seats	Poll toppers	Last Seat	Missed out
FG	75	23	18	10
FF	29	4	13	11
Lab	34	10	4	11
Ind	13	2	6	3
SF	13	4	2	3
SP	1	0	0	0
Green	0	0	0	2

	Candidates	Seats	1	2	3	4	Last seat
Roscommon South Leitrim	10	3	FG	FG			Ind
Sligo North Leitrim	13	3	FG	FG			FF
Dublin North Central	9	3	FG	Ind			Lab
Dublin North East	11	3	FG	Lab			Lab
Dublin North West	12	3	Lab	SF			FG
Kildare South	8	3	FG	Lab			FF
Meath East	9	3	FG	Lab			FF
Meath West	13	3	FF	FG			FG
Cork North West	9	3	FG	FF			FG
Cork South West	13	3	FG	Lab			FG
Kerry North	11	3	FG	Lab			SF
Kerry South	10	3	Ind	FG			FG
Limerick	10	3	FG	FF			FG
Tipperary North	8	3	Ind	Lab			FG
Tipperary South	8	3	FG	Lab			Ind
Donegal North East	11	3	FG	SF			FF
Donegal South West	9	3	SF	FG			FF
Galway East	13	4	FG	FF	FG		Ind
Dublin Central	16	4	FG	Lab	SF		ind
Dublin Mid-West	14	4	Lab	FG	FG		SF
Dublin North	9	4	FG	Lab	Soc		FF
Dublin South East	16	4	Lab	FG	Lab		FG
Dublin South West	10	4	SF	Lab	FG		Lab
Dublin West	10	4	Lab	FG	SP		FF
Dun Laoghaire	14	4	Lab	FG	FF		FG
Kildare North	12	4	Lab	ind	FG		FF
Longford Westmeath	15	4	Lab	FG	FG		FF
Clare	16	4	FG	FG	FF		Ind
Cork East	13	4	FG	FG	FF		Lab
Cork North Central	15	4	Lab	SF	FG		FG
Limerick City	13	4	FG	FF	Lab		FG
Waterford	15	4	FG	Lab	FF		FG
Galway West	17	5	FF	FG	Ind	FG	Ind
Mayo	15	5	FG	FG	FF	FG	FG
Dublin South	16	5	Lab	FG	FG	ind	FF
Dublin South Central	18	5	SF	Lab	Lab	FG	FF
Carlow Kilkenny	19	5	FG	FF	FG	Lab	FG
Laois Offaly	21	5	FF	FG	SF	FF	FG
Louth	16	5	FG	SF	Lab	FG	FF
Wexford	14	5	Lab	FG	FG	Ind	FF
Wicklow	24	5	FG	FG	Lab	Lab	FG
Cork South Central	17	5	FF	FG	Lab	FG	FG
Cavan Monaghan	14	5	SF	FG	FF	SF	FG

https://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?hl=en_GB&key=tki8XrBkkgKdAikAl-c3rhg&hl=en_GB#gid=0